The vote is Tuesday. Washington's borrowing bill is Wednesday.

1. The vote, and the window after it

Americans vote Tuesday. Going into the weekend, both big prediction markets priced Democratic control of the Senate above 70%. The House odds favored Democrats more heavily.

For markets, control of Congress shapes spending, tariffs and how much debt Treasury has to sell. The result lands the night before Treasury's refunding.

The bigger market risk may come after the vote. President Trump said on Oct. 8 that the U.S. would not attack Iran before the midterms. The Wall Street Journal reported that Washington told Gulf states to prepare for a possible short campaign afterward. Polymarket's contract on the ceasefire holding through Nov. 15 traded near 49 cents on Friday.

A quiet week after the vote would let oil's war premium shrink. A strike would test whether the bond market still reads high oil as a growth threat.

Read more: Both prediction markets moved Democratic Senate odds above 70%

2. Washington's bill meets Big Tech's

Treasury releases its borrowing estimates Monday at 3 p.m. On Wednesday at 8:30 a.m., it announces the size of its next sales of 3-year, 10-year and 30-year debt. Microsoft's bonds, including notes that run to 2066, settle the same day.

That timing matters. Big Tech now competes with Treasury for buyers of long-dated debt. A Bank for International Settlements bulletin tracked hyperscaler bonds of 10 years or longer this year. They made up about 24% of corporate issuance at those maturities and equaled about 13% of gross Treasury issuance.

The 30-year yield ended last week near 5.31%. Bigger long-term auction sizes would add supply to a market already charging more for duration. Steady sizes, or more of the borrowing shifted into bills, would ease the pressure.

Watch the 30-year Wednesday morning. It now sets the price of AI's bill as much as the Fed does.

3. Is the memory squeeze Intel's, or everyone's?

Intel lost almost 29% on Friday after blaming a memory shortage, driven by AI demand, for a slump in PC sales. This week, the companies that buy that memory report.

Apple (AAPL) reports Monday, with its call at 5 p.m. ET. It buys memory for every iPhone and Mac. AMD (AMD) reports Tuesday after the close. Qualcomm (QCOM) reports Wednesday after the close.

Listen for two things: memory costs in gross margins, and any change in unit forecasts for phones and PCs.

If Apple and Qualcomm describe the same squeeze, Intel's warning becomes a device-market problem, and AI's costs spread further. If they sound calm, Friday's selloff looks like it caught too many companies in Intel's net.

Read more: Intel's drop deepened in regular trading

4. Jobs, wages and December

The labor data builds all week. ISM manufacturing lands Monday at 10 a.m., job openings Tuesday at 10 a.m. and ISM services Wednesday. The October jobs report arrives Friday at 8:30 a.m.

The last report was soft. Employers added only 29,000 jobs in September, and unemployment was 4.2%. Last week's wage data showed pay falling behind prices, with wages and salaries down 0.6% from a year earlier after inflation.

That leaves the Fed with an awkward mix. Growth ran at 3.4% last quarter and core inflation at 3.1%, while households lose ground.

Strong hiring and firm wages would firm up December. Weak hiring would make a hike harder to defend, and could pull long yields down with it. The Bank of England also decides Thursday.

5. Crypto's reopening test

Binance aims to reopen withdrawals by Sunday and has promised a full proof of reserves by Monday. It says it already holds $5 billion of the exact tokens taken in Thursday's $6.3 billion breach.

A smooth reopening turns the theft into a cost Binance absorbs. A delay, or a rush for the exits once withdrawals open, would turn it into a trust problem for every exchange.

Circle (CRCL) reports Wednesday, with a webcast at 8 a.m. ET. Its ability to freeze USDC helped contain the theft. It still fell with the group last week. Its results are the first chance for management to make that case.

Strategy (MSTR) starts daily record dates for its Stretch preferred stock on Sunday. With bitcoin near $76,700, the funding behind bitcoin treasury companies stays in focus.

Read more: Binance says it already holds $5 billion of the exact tokens taken

6. The week on one page

All times ET.

• Sunday: Binance's target to reopen withdrawals.
• Monday: ISM manufacturing, 10 a.m. Treasury borrowing estimates, 3 p.m. Apple after the close, call at 5 p.m. Binance's full proof of reserves due.
• Tuesday: Midterm elections. Job openings, 10 a.m. AMD after the close.
• Wednesday: Treasury refunding announcement, 8:30 a.m. Circle's webcast, 8 a.m. ISM services. Microsoft's bonds settle. Qualcomm after the close.
• Thursday: Bank of England decision. Productivity and costs, 8:30 a.m. MidCap Financial's final net asset value due.
• Friday: October jobs report, 8:30 a.m.

THE MARKET SIPS TAKEAWAY

Last week showed Big Tech funding AI with stock and bonds. This week shows whether the bond market can absorb that alongside Washington's own borrowing.

A larger refunding, firm jobs data and a post-vote oil spike would push long yields higher and make AI's bill more expensive. Steady auction sizes, softer hiring and a quiet week after the vote would give the long end room. Big Tech's new lenders would then have a better week than its stockholders did.

UNTIL THEN, SIP SLOWLY!

The Market Sips Desk

REPLY PROMPT: What worries you more for long-term rates this week: Washington's borrowing or Big Tech's? Hit reply and tell us why.