CVR Energy said Tuesday that buying two Marathon refineries would have more than doubled its earnings per share this year. Less than two hours later, its controlling shareholder, a unit of Carl Icahn's Icahn Enterprises, offered to sell up to $362.5 million of CVR stock. CVR fell about 13% while Valero and PBF Energy rose. Elsewhere, job openings beat, yields rose and chips bounced. The Nasdaq closed up about 0.8% and the Dow down about 0.4%. 
3 MOVERS IN 3 MINUTES1. Job openings beat. Yields rose. Fed hike bets edged up. September openings rose 333,000 to 7.52 million, above forecasts, though the government called them "little changed" and said hiring changed little. The 10-year yield rose to 4.95%, and Kalshi's December hike contract rose to about 75 cents from 71. D.R. Horton (DHI) fell about 5% a day after builders rallied on cheaper oil. Tuesday's session took back the rates half of Monday's cheap-oil trade. 2. Oracle sold stock at $116. The next day, buyers paid more. Oracle (ORCL) priced its full $20 billion Monday night, half in stock at $116 and half in notes. The notes carry coupons up to 8.65%, a measure of what its capital now costs. The stock rose about 6% Tuesday, roughly 9% above the offer. Bondholders had already voted: its 2066 bonds fell more than a cent on the dollar Monday, per Tradeweb data cited by Reuters. Private lenders are busy too. Apollo (APO) reported record origination of $114 billion, while its flagship buyout strategy lost 2.6% gross. 3. Crypto's favorite contract now has a stock-market version. The CFTC said single-stock perpetual futures, the never-expiring contracts behind much of crypto trading, can begin trading on U.S. exchanges registered with both the CFTC and SEC. It named no venues or start date; Coinbase and Kalshi filed for them in September. Coinbase (COIN) rose about 5.5% a day after a 52-week low, with no clear cause. The question is no longer whether Americans can trade perpetuals on Apple. It is who collects the fees. 3 SIGNALS FOR TOMORROW 1. Election night. Democratic Senate control ended near 75 cents on Polymarket and 74 on Kalshi, after an early-afternoon dip to 73 with no clear catalyst. How those contracts pay out depends on the fine print, and a contested race can tie up money for weeks. What it could change: control of Congress shapes spending and Treasury supply, which feeds Signal 3. 2. AMD reports tonight. AMD (AMD) is expected to earn $1.95 a share on about $13.1 billion of revenue. What it could change: the chip rebound came before any of these numbers. AMD's outlook decides whether it was a floor or a breather. 3. Treasury's refunding, Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. Treasury lays out its borrowing plans 15 minutes after ADP payrolls. Dealers expect steady auction sizes, according to Reuters, so guidance and buyback sizes carry the news. What it could change: with the 10-year near 4.95%, any hint of more long-dated supply could push it toward 5%. Now, back to the refinery deal. PREMIER FEATURE You've likely seen their faces on Fox Business, CNBC and Bloomberg. One is the economist who told his readers to sell everything a few weeks before Black Monday. The other has written up 50 stocks before they soared 1,000% or more over the past twenty years. They've never sat down together... until now. And what they're seeing in this market, they say could make or break your retirement. Watch their free briefing now, before it's taken offline. The SipCVR Energy's controlling holder pledged $500 million as a backstop. Then it became a seller.CVR Energy (CVI) agreed to buy two Marathon Petroleum (MPC) refineries in Minnesota and North Dakota for about $4.2 billion. CVR says the deal would have lifted its earnings per share for the first nine months of 2026 from $3.73 to $7.67. On this year's numbers, that's a steal. The question is whether this year is normal. Cheap, if 2026 repeatsThe refineries generated $1.158 billion of EBITDA in the twelve months to September, so CVR is paying about 3.6 times. Its release adds a qualifier: that figure reflects "current favorable market conditions." In 2025 the same business earned $506 million, which puts the price near 8.3 times. Marathon's refining margin more than doubled to $45.70 a barrel last quarter, a surge Reuters ties to the Iran war. Aramco said Tuesday its refining and chemicals earnings more than tripled. Who is payingThe money comes from a $2.5 billion secured bridge loan, $800 million from commodity trader Trafigura, $500 million of new stock and cash. The announcement also listed a $500 million equity commitment from its controlling shareholder. The prospectus shows that commitment shrinks as CVR sells stock to the public and ends once those sales reach $500 million. Tuesday's offering is sized to do exactly that. CVR still pays a non-refundable 1% fee for it. FROM OUR SPONSORS If you have any money in the stock market, you may want to pay attention. New research points to a massive market-moving event that could send hundreds of popular stocks into a sudden free fall. Holding the wrong stocks when this hits could erase years of gains. That’s why analysts have now identified a list of stocks investors may want to avoid as this event unfolds. If you want to see what’s coming — and which stocks could be most at risk — Click here to get the full details before it’s too late. The Icahn unit is also selling $250 million of its own shares in the offering, plus up to $112.5 million more if underwriters want them. CVR gets none of that. The seller owns about 67% of CVR, its lock-up lasts 30 days, and its agreement with CVR imposes no standstill. The anchor investor's priceTrafigura agreed to pay $53.37 a share, about 10% above Tuesday's close, and its agreement allows adjustments for cheaper stock sales before closing. It will also supply the refineries' crude and buy their fuel, a role the prospectus warns "may conflict" with other shareholders' interests. What the stock saidCVR fell about 13% while Valero (VLO) and PBF Energy (PBF) rose. The deal, the offering and better-than-expected results all landed the same morning, so no single item explains the drop. One reading: the two parties closest to these refineries are both taking cash. Marathon is selling after its refining margins doubled. CVR's controlling holder is trimming. Neither move proves anyone expects margins to fall. It does mean public buyers are underwriting that they won't. What settles itThe offering price against Trafigura's $53.37. Whether underwriters take the extra $112.5 million. And fourth-quarter refining margins, the first test of whether $1.158 billion is a run rate or a high-water mark. The Market Sips TakeawayA deal priced on peak earnings is only cheap if the peak holds. Marathon is taking cash for this year's margins. Public buyers are being asked to bet on next year's. UNTIL THEN, SIP SLOWLY! The Market Sips Desk When a controlling shareholder sells into its own company's deal financing, is that a warning or housekeeping? Hit reply. 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